Targeted site selection determines the best hydrocarbon producing locations within areas of highest hydrocarbon reserves of a resource play. The best hydrocarbon production locations are selected within an area of favorable conditions for resource production based on source rock and reservoir properties. Risking of hydrocarbon production and productivity includes Monte Carlo simulations of a shale gas production model for targeted sites using probability distributions for petroleum systems model parameters, well parameters, and project parameters. Cumulative probability of recoverable hydrocarbons for the portfolio of targeted hydrocarbon production locations allows the high-grading of areas of greatest potential within the resource play.